Godlove University · Free Trading Tools
10,000 simulated versions of your trading, run in one second — see the real probability your account survives, and the brutal math of digging out of a drawdown.
| Outcome across 10,000 runs | Value |
|---|---|
| Survived all trades | — |
| Median ending P&L | — |
| Median worst drawdown along the way | — |
| Longest losing streak (median run) | — |
The complete guide to protecting a funded account — buffer math, firm lock rules, my 5 survival rules and the danger-zone protocol. Free PDF, straight to your inbox.
Simulations assume independent trades with fixed dollar risk — real trading has fat tails, so treat these as best-case floors, not guarantees.
Risk of ruin is the probability that your normal, expected losing streaks are big enough to wipe out your capital before your edge can play out. It’s the number that explains the most painful paradox in trading: a profitable strategy can still blow an account if the size is too big for the buffer behind it. A 45% win rate at 1.5R is a money-printing edge with $100 risk on a $2,000 buffer — and a near-certain blowup with $500 risk on the same buffer. Same strategy. Same trader. Different sizing, opposite outcomes.
Instead of a textbook formula, this calculator runs your statistics through 10,000 independent simulations — 10,000 alternate versions of the next few months of your trading — and counts how many survive. It’s the same math prop firms run on you.
Losses compound against you: down 20% needs 25% to recover, down 50% needs 100%, and down 75% needs 300%. This asymmetry is why the first job of any funded trader is defense — every dollar of buffer protected is worth more than a dollar of profit chased. If your risk of ruin comes out above a few percent, the fix is almost never “trade better.” It’s risk less per trade — and the simulator will show you the difference instantly.
Professional standards treat anything above 1–2% as unacceptable — because you don’t trade one 250-trade block, you trade dozens of them over a career, and small per-block risks compound. If your number comes out above that, reduce risk per trade until it drops; it responds dramatically to sizing.
In a funded account with a trailing drawdown, the printed balance is marketing — the distance between your balance and the drawdown floor is the only capital that can actually absorb losses. A “$50,000” account with a $2,000 buffer has $2,000 of survivable room, and your risk of ruin must be computed on that number.
Losing streaks. A 45% win rate produces 8-loss streaks routinely and 12-loss streaks over a few hundred trades. If 12 losses exceed your buffer, ruin isn’t bad luck — it’s a mathematical certainty waiting for its date. Sizing is what converts a good strategy into a surviving one.
Because the gain is computed on a smaller base. Lose 20% of $10,000 and you have $8,000; getting back to $10,000 requires $2,000 of profit on an $8,000 base — 25%. The deeper the hole, the faster the required recovery grows: 50% down needs 100%, 75% down needs 300%.
Risk disclaimer: Trading futures and forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. This tool is educational only, uses simplified statistical assumptions, and is not financial advice.
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